Cardiff Business School People

Professor Patrick Minford

Professor of Applied Economics, Cardiff Business School

+44 (0)29 208 75728
E26, Aberconway Building, Colum Drive, Cardiff, CF10 3EU
External link:

Patrick has led the following projects

Research in Applied Macroeconomics

31 August 2012 to 30 August 2013

Sponsored by Jane Hodge Foundation

Led by Professor Patrick Minford

Award type: Research

PhD supervision research interests

  • Macroeconomic modelling and forecasting
  • Macroeconomic policy

Academics secure major ESRC grant

Thursday 19 January 2017

A team consisting of several Cardiff Business School academics has won a prestigious grant, worth £330,000, from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and 2 million RMB from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC).

Funding renewal for long-standing partnership

Wednesday 12 October 2016

The Hodge Foundation has confirmed that it will renew its support for Cardiff Business School’s Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics, pledging £100,000 to fund the work of the research institute for another year.

Essays in Honour of Patrick Minford

Thursday 6 March 2014

A Special Issue of Open Economies Review has been published in honour of Professor Patrick Minford.

Selected publications

Selected recent publications (for downloads and working papers, visit Patrick's web page):

Monetary Policy

'Are interest rate regressions evidence for a Taylor rule?' (with Francesco Perugini and Naveen Srinivasan), Economic Letters, Vol. 76, No. 1, 145-150, June 2002

'Nominal Contracting and monetary targets – drifting into indexation' (with Eric Nowell and Bruce Webb), Economic Journal, January 2003, Vol 113, No. 484, 65-100

'How different are money supply rules from Taylor rules ?' (with Francesco Perugini and Naveen Srinivasan), Indian Economic Review, Vol. 38, Issue 2, 2003, 157-166.

'Optimal monetary policy is price-level targeting the next step?' (with David Peel) Scottish Journal of Political Economy, November 2003, Vol. 50, No. 5, 650-667.

'Monetarism: A Retrospective' (with Tom Mayer), World Economics, Vol. 5, No. 2 (April–June), 2004, 147–185.

'Understanding the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation' (with Naveen Srinivasan), Journal of Quantitative Economics, New Series Vol. 4 (1), January 2006, 49-64.

'Opportunistic monetary policy: an alternative rationalization' (with Naveen Srinivasan) Journal of Economics and Business, 58, October-November 2006, 366-372.

'What are the right models and policies for a world of low inflation?' National Institute Economic Review, 196, April 2006, 92-106.

'Are Central Bank preferences asymmetric? A Comment' (with Naveen Srinivasan), Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1), February 2008, pp. 119-126.

'Commentary on "Economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy "' Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2008, issue July, pages 331-338.

'Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity' (with David Meenagh, Eric Nowell. Prakriti Sofat, and Naveen Srinivasan), Economic Modelling, 2009, 26, (5), 978-992 .

'The Banking Crisis: A Rational Interpretation' Political Studies Review, vol. 8 (1), January 2010, 40-54.

'Ruling out unstable equilibria in New Keynesian models' (with Naveen Srinivasan), Economics Letters, Volume 112, Issue 3, September 2011, 247-249.

'Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: a role for money after all?' (with Naveen Srinivasan) International Finance, 14:2, 2011, 211-229.

'The banking crisis as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium', CESifo Economic Studies, 56(4), 554-574, December 2010.

Money Matters - essays in honour of Alan Walters (edited with Introduction), Edward Elgar, 2004, pp 361.

Open Economy, Trade and the European Union

'Britain and EMU: Assessing the costs in macroeconomic variability', (with David Meenagh and Bruce Webb) The World Economy 27(3), 2004, 301-358.

'Measuring the Economic Costs and benefits of the EU', Open Economies Review, 17, 509-524, 2006.

'Joining the European Monetary Union- comparing first and second generation open economy models' (with Vo Phuong Mai Le) Open Economies Review, 17, 281-296, 2006.

Should Britain join the euro? The Chancellor's five tests examined, IEA Occasional Paper 126, September 2002, pp 67.

Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship, (with Vidya Mahambare and Eric Nowell), Edward Elgar in association with the Institute of Economic Affairs, 2005, pp.254.

'Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?' (with David Meenagh, Eric Nowell, and Prakriti Sofat), Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 2010, 1131-1150.

Estimation and Testing of Macro models

'Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML—some experiments using a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits', (with Bruce Webb), Economic Modelling, vol. 22(1), January 2005,187-205..

'Partial Current Information and Signal Extraction in a Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Model: A Computational Solution' (with Laurian Lungu and Kent Matthews) Economic Modelling, 25(2), 255-273, 2008.

'Testing a model of the UK by the method of indirect inference' (with David Meenagh and Konstantinos Theodoridis), Open Economies Review, vol. 20(2), April 2009, 265-291.

'Testing a DSGE model of the EU', (with David Meenagh and Michael Wickens), Open Economies Review, vol. 20 (4), 435-471, 2009.

'Two Orthogonal Continents: Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference,' (with Vo Phuong Mai, David Meenagh, and Michael Wickens), Open Economies Review, 21(1), February, 2010, 23-44.

'The 'Puzzles' methodology: en route to indirect inference?' (with Vo Phuong Mai Le and Michael Wickens) Economic Modelling, 27(6), 1417-1428, November, 2010.

'How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE Model using indirect inference (with Vo Phuong Mai Le, David Meenagh, and Michael Wickens), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35(12), 2078-2104, December, 2011.


'Explaining the equity risk premium' (with Laurian Lungu), Manchester School, 74(6),December, 2006, 670-700.

'Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes – a new test of market efficiency', (with David Meenagh and David Peel), Economics Letters, 94 (2007), 235-239.

'On the Equality of Real Interest Rates Across Borders in Integrated Capital Markets' (with David Peel), Open Economies Review, 18(1), 2007, 119-125.


'Competitiveness in a globalised world: a commentary' Journal of International Business Studies, 37, 2006, 176-178.

'Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA' (with Kent Matthews and Ruthira Naraidoo), European Journal of Political Economy, 2008, 24(3), 605-614.

'Vicious and virtuous circles- the political economy of unemployment' (with Ruthira Naraidoo), South African Journal of Economics, 78(1), March, 2010, 1-22.

'An Agenda for Tax reform', Centre for Policy Studies, 2006, pp. 19.