Professor Patrick Minford

Selected publications

Papers on Monetary Policy

Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s, with Jingwen Fan, December 2009

Testing the Monetary Policy Rule in the US: A Reconsideration of the Fed's Behaviour, with Zhirong Ou, September 2009

Determinacy in New Keynesian models: a role for money after all?, with Naveen Srinivasan, September 2009

Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?, with David Meenagh, Eric Nowell, Prakriti Sofat, and Naveen Srinivasan. April 2008. Published in Economic Modelling, vol. 26(5) (2009), 978-992

Calvo Contracts - Optimal Indexation in General Equilibrium with Le, Vo Phuong Mai, updated October 2008.

Calvo Contracts - A Critique with David Peel

Are Central Bank Preferences Asymmetric? A Comment, with Naveen Srinivasan, 2008, published in Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1) (2008), 119-126

Opportunistic Monetary Policy: an Alternative Rationalization, with Naveen Srinivasan. Journal of Economics and Business, 58, October-November 2006, 366-372.

What are the right models and policies for a world of low inflation?, published in National Institute Economic Review, vol 196, April 2006, 92-106.

Monetary Policy - should it move onto a price level target?, The AW Phillips memorial lecture to the New Zealand Association of Economists, July 2004

Nominal contracting and monetary targets-drifting towards indexation, with Eric Nowell and Bruce Webb, Published in Economic Journal, 113 (January 2003)

Are interest rate regressions evidence for a Taylor Rule?, with Francesco Perugini and Naveen Srinivasan, published in Economics Letters, 76 (1) (2002) pp. 145-150

Exploitability as a specification test of the Phillips Curve, with David Peel

Open Economy

Why Crises Happen - Nonstationary Macroeconomics with James Davidson, David Meenagh and Michael Wickens. November 2010.

Can a Real Business Cycle Model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour? with Prakriti Sofat, Eric Nowell and David Meenagh. Updated April 2008.

On the equality of Real Interest Rates across borders in Integrated Capital Markets, with David Peel, Open Economies Review, 18(1), 2007.

Joining the European Monetary Union - comparing first and second generation open economy models, with Vo Phuong Mai Le, updated 20/1/2006. Published in Open Economies ReviewVolume 17, Number 3/July 2006.

Comments on Bayoumi,Laxton and Pesention, revised January 2005

Notes on second generation open economy models: the 'workhorse model'

Supply Side

Growth and relative living standards - testing Barriers to Riches on post-war panel data, with David Meenagh and Jiang Wang

Public Spending and Growth with Jiang Wang

Testing a Simple Structural Model of Endogenous Growth with David Meenagh and Jiang Wang

Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA with Kent Matthews and Ruthira Naraidoo, published in European Journal of Political Economy Volume 24, Issue 3, September 2008, Pages 605-614

Agenda for tax reform, Centre for Policy Studies, 2006, pp. 19

Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment, with Ruthira Naraidoo, published in South African Journal of Economics Vol. 78:1 March 2010,pp. 1-22

Financial Economics

Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes - a new test of market efficiency with David Meenagh and David Peel, Economics Letters, 94 (2007), 235-239.

Explaining the Equity Risk Premium with Laurian Lungu, in Manchester School, 74(6),December, 2006, 670-700.

The Equity Risk premium and the prospects for markets Powerpoint presentation of speech to 2006 conference of SIFA - the support group for solicitors and accountancy based IFAs

Estimation and Testing

Methods of Evaluating DSGE Models: Literature Review, Konstantinos Theodoridis (2006), chapter 2, PhD thesis, Cardiff University.

Some problems in the testing of DSGE models, with Vo Phuong Mai Le and Michael Wickens, December 2009

The 'Puzzles' methodology: en route to Indirect Inference?, with Vo Phuong Mai Le and Michael Wickens, October 2009

Two Orthogonal Continents: Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference, with Vo Phuong Mai Le, David Meenagh and Michael Wickens.

How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE Model using indirect inference, with Vo Phuong Mai Le, David Meenagh and Michael Wickens. Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference, with David Meenagh and Michael Wickens, updated December 2008. Published in Open Economies Review, vol. 20(4) (2009), 435-471.

Testing a model of the UK by the method of indirect inference, with Konstantinos Theodoridis and David Meenagh. Published in Open Economies Review, vol. 20(2) (2009), 265-291

Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML- a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits, with Bruce Webb, published in Economic Modelling 22(1), January 2005, pp. 187-205 .PDF file - updated August 2004,

A matlab function to evaluate the LM statistic for investigating Heteroscedasticity in a multivariate framework, as it is described by Doornik (1996) and Kelejian (1982) (K.A.Theodoridis)

Policy Commentary

a href="http://www.parliamentarybrief.com/2010/10/just-keep-off-the-sofa">Just keep off the Sofa, Parliamentary Brief, November 2010

The Banking Crisis - A Rational Interpretation. Published in Political Studies Review, vol. 8(1) (2010), 40-54.

Policy towards the EU

• Should Britain Leave the EU?: An Economic Analysis of a Troubled Relationship, with Vidya Mahambare and Eric Nowell, Edward Elgar and The Institute of Economic Affairs, May 2005. A late draft version can be seen here, or buy it here.

Other Pages

• Curriculum Vitae