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Cardiff Business School
Dr Michael G Arghyrou
Senior Lecturer in Economics
Michael is a graduate of the Athens University of Economics and Business (BSc in Economics, 1993), MSc (1994) and PhD (1998) degrees in Economics from the University of London, Queen Mary College. He joined Cardiff Business School in September 2005, having previously been a lecturer in Economics at Brunel University (1998-2005). He has been a senior lecturer since August 2008.
His main research areas are Macroeconomics and International Finance. He has published papers on the economics of the EMU, exchange rate determination, current account dynamics, real interest rate convergence, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy sustainability and Greek macroeconomic policy.
In a joint article published in February 2010, Michael and John Tsoukalas were the first to propose the creation of a two-currency EMU as a possible solution to the EMU sovereign-debt crisis. Their proposal has since received significant attention by policy-makers, academics and international media. In another joint article, now forthcoming for publication, Michael and John provided the first theoretical treatment of the EMU debt crisis. The predictions of their model receive strong empirical support in another article, jointly written by Michael and Alexandros Kontonikas.
Teaching profile
- International Macroeconomics (PhD programme, Year 2)
- International Finance (BSc, Year 3)
- Economics of the European Union (BSc, Year 2)
Research interests
- Economics of the EMU
- Effects of the Euro on European national economies
- The EMU and the Euro
- Exchange rates
- Fiscal policy
- Greek economy
- Interest rates and monetary policy
- International Finance
- International portfolio diversification policy (fiscal and monetary)
- Macroeconomics
Selected publications
Research monographs (reverse chronological order)
The effects of the accession of Greece to the EMU, The Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE), Study No 64, 2006.
Monetary Policy at the European Periphery: Greek Experience and Lessons for EU Candidates (2000), with I.A. Mourmouras, book in The European and Transatlantic Studies Series, Springer-Verlag, Berlin-New York, 2000.
Refereed journal publications (reverse chronological order)
"Risk Aversion, Exchange Rate Uncertainty and the Law of One Price: Insights from the Market for Online Air-Travel Tickets", with Panayiotis M. Pourpourides and Andros Gregoriou, Forthcoming Canadian Journal of Economics
The Greek debt crisis: Likely causes, mechanics and outcomes (with John Tsoukalas), forthcoming in The World Economy
Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European Union (with Andros Gregoriou and Alexandros Kontonikas), Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, vol. 19, July 2009, 447-460.
Monetary policy before and after the euro: Evidence from Greece, Empirical Economics, vol. 36, June 2009, 621-643.
Non-linearity versus non-normality in real exchange rate dynamics (with Andros Gregoriou), Economics Letters, vol. 100, August 2008, 200-203
Current account imbalances and real exchange rates in the euro area (with Georgios Chortareas), Review of International Economics, vol. 16, September 2008, 747-764.
Government Solvency: Revisiting some EMU countries (with Kul Luintel), Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 29, June 2007, pp. 387-410.
Testing for Purchasing Power Parity correcting for non normality using the wild bootstrap (with Andros Gregoriou), Economics Letters, vol. 95, May 2007, pp. 285-290.
The price effects of joining the Euro: Modelling the Greek experience using non-linear price-adjustment models, Applied Economics, vol. 39, March 2007, pp. 493-503.
Non-linear and non-symmetric exchange-rate adjustment: evidence from medium- and high inflation countries" (with Christopher Martin and Virginie Boinet), Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 30 (1), Spring 2006, pp. 38-56.
Non-linear inflationary dynamics: Evidence from the UK (with Costas Milas and Christopher Martin), Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 57 (1), January 2005, pp. 51-69.
Competitiveness and the external trade of Greece in the 1990s: A cross-sectoral investigation (with Evelyn Bazyna), Journal of Economic Integration, vol. 18 (4), December 2003, pp. 763-793.
EU participation and the external trade of Greece: an appraisal of the evidence, Applied Economics, vol. 32 (2), February 2000, pp. 151-159.
Public expenditure and national income: Time series evidence from Greece, Ekonomia, vol. 4 (2), Winter 2000, pp. 173-191.
Causal relationships between public expenditure, public receipts and Gross Domestic Product: Greece 1965-95, Applied Economics Letters vol. 5 (11), November 1998, pp. 727-731.
Contributions to edited books Greek macroeconomic policy in the 1990s, in A. Mitsos and E. Mossialos (eds.) 2000, Contemporary Greece and Europe, The European Political Economy Series, The LSE European Institute, Ashgate Publishing, pp. 157-180.
Other academic publications (reverse chronological order)
The Accession of Greece to the EMU: Initial Estimates and Lessons for the New EU Countries, Liverpool Quarterly Economic Bulletin, 27(4), December 2006
The Greek Economy in the EMU: Constraints and prospects, Oikonomikes Exelixeis vol. 8 (April 2005), The Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE), pp. 34-45 (in Greek).
The limits of the strong-drachma policy (with Iannis Mourmouras), in I.A. Mourmouras, New challenges for economic policy, The Scientific Library Series, Kritiki publishers, Athens, Greece, pp. 118-136 (in Greek).
Recent Working Papers
The Option Of Last Resort: A Two-Currency EMU, with John D. Tsoukalas
The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion, with Alexandros Kontonikas
Corruption as a form of extreme individualism: An economic explanation based on geography and climate conditions
The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes, with John D. Tsoukalas, forthcoming for publication in The World Economy Exchange rate uncertainty and deviations from Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence from the G7 area
The single monetary policy and domestic macro-fundamentals: Evidence from Spain
Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European Union. A revised version of this paper is forthcoming for publication to Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money
Monetary policy before and after the euro: Evidence from Greece. A revised version of this paper is forthcoming for publication to Empirical Economics
Current account imbalances and real exchange rates in the euro area (with Georgios Chortareas). A revised version of this paper is forthcoming for publication to the Review of International Economics.
Newspaper Articles
The crisis as a trigger for a supply-side revolution, Kathimerini (Athens daily), 27 November 2010
Greece needs a supply-side revolution, Apokalypseis (Athens weekly), 9 October 2010
The Greek debt crisis, Kathimerini (Athens daily), 26 June 2010
The stability and Growth Pact: Beneficial and necessary, Kathimerini tis Kyriakis, Athens weekly, 1 November 2009
Big reforms are imperative, Apogevmatini tis Kyriakis, Athens weekly, 19 July 2009
Real interest rates in the Eurozone: Convergence and the credit crunch, Kathimerini tis Kyriakis, Athens weekly, 4 January 2009
Euro not responsible for price increases (by Iannis A. Mourmouras), Vima of Sunday, Athens weekly, 22 April 2007
Euro not to be blamed for higher inflation, Kathimerini, Athens daily, 30 March 2007
Greece not fully prepared upon joining the euro, Kerdos, Athens, daily – financial, 29 March 2007
So far, we have only paid the "bitters" of EMU…The "sweats" are to come later, Eleftherotypia, Athens daily, 16 July 2005.
The effects of the accession of Greece to the EU - Part I, Kathimerini, Athens daily, 15 June 2005
The effects of the accession of Greece to the EU - Part II, Kathimerini, Athens daily, 15 June 2005
Strong drachma policy and Greek exports, Vima, Athens weekly, 9 June 2002
Articles appearing on roubini.com
The escalating Greek debt crisis: What has been happening and where is it going?
The Option of Last Resort: A Two-Currency EMU
Real interest rates in the EMU: Facts and implications
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